IMD warns of rain, thunderstorms in 18 states till 13 September as Bay low moves inland
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned of rain and thunderstorms across 18 states between 11 and 13 September, driven by a low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal that is moving inland across Odisha towards central Madhya Pradesh, The Week reported on Friday. Delhi, which hosts the BRICS Summit on 12 and 13 September, is expected to see light rain from Friday evening and light to moderate showers over the weekend.
Which states are on alert
According to the IMD bulletin cited by The Week, the states covered by the warning are Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, among others. A heavy rain alert is in force for Madhya Pradesh, which lies directly in the path of the low-pressure system, and a rain and thunderstorm warning has been issued for Uttar Pradesh. Rajasthan is expected to enter a fresh spell of rain within two days as the system moves west.
Hindi dailies including NPG News and Tarun Mitra have reported IMD warnings of isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall and gusty winds of up to 75 km per hour in the affected belt, with district-level alerts for Bhopal, Indore, Raipur and Bilaspur.
What is driving the weather
The IMD attributes the spell to three features acting together: the Bay of Bengal low, currently over southern Odisha and tracking north-west; an active monsoon trough running through the plains; and a western cyclonic circulation over the northern hills. The combination is typical of the second week of September, when the monsoon's last systems interact with early westerly disturbances.
Delhi: possibly the last spell
For the capital, the IMD expects light rain on the evening of 11 September and light to moderate rainfall with isolated moderate spells on 12 and 13 September. Mahesh Palawat of the private forecaster Skymet told The Week that this could be one of the last spells of the monsoon over Delhi this year. The IMD's seasonal outlook had earlier said monsoon withdrawal from western Rajasthan, which marks the beginning of the retreat, is not attempted before 1 September and requires five consecutive dry days over the region.
A below-normal September overall
The rain comes against a broader backdrop of deficit. In its monthly outlook issued on 31 August, the IMD forecast below-normal rainfall for the country as a whole in September, defined as less than 91 per cent of the long-period average of 167.9 mm, with strong El Nino conditions prevailing over the equatorial Pacific. Northwest, northeast, east and east-central India were, however, projected to receive normal to above-normal rain, which is consistent with this week's pattern.
Advice for the weekend
Residents in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and eastern Uttar Pradesh should expect waterlogging in low-lying areas and possible disruption to road travel on Saturday. In the hills of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Jammu and Kashmir, travellers should check road status before setting out, as thunderstorms raise the risk of landslides on already saturated slopes. The IMD updates its district-level nowcasts every three hours on the Mausam app and at mausam.imd.gov.in.